本文是關於解決RBNZ當前問題的見解，由於貨幣政策立場的調整與其對通脹的最終影響之間存在著很大的滯後性，因此政策的製定需要以經濟預測為基礎。然而，從其本質上看，預測過程具有內在的不確定性。價格的過程一般由個體隨機因素組成，經濟結構不確定(Kelsey, 2015)。預測，進一步從通貨膨脹的角度來看，取決於對廣泛的變量本身受到問題影響的預測。這表明，圍繞新西蘭央行通脹預測的信心區間可能相對較大。本篇幫寫論文文章由美國論文人EducationRen教育網整理，供大家參考閱讀。
As there is a substantial lagging between adjustments made to the monetary policy stance and their ultimate influence over inflation, policy requires to be set based upon the projections economically. Through its nature however, the process of forecasting is uncertain inherently. The process of price generally consists of individual stochastic element and the economy structure is not acknowledged with certainty (Kelsey, 2015). Forecasts, further from the perspective of inflation, depend over forecasts for wide range of variables subjected themselves to issues. This recommends that the interval of confidence surrounding the inflation forecast in the RBNZ could be large relatively.
According to Debelle et al, (1995), it has been argued that there is a variance of irreducible nature that stems from unpredictable shocks nature and also from uncertainties on the economic structure. They also depict that as the prices variance is forced to a minimum the output variance further increase. This implies that as the minimum is approached, smaller increases in the price stability degree come at the price of substantially enhanced volatility of output (Kashyap et al., 2012). The price stability ambitious goal nature directed towards minimum expected achievement for variance in inflation. This requires a higher policy activism degree. Inflation shocks also need to be quickly countered when expectations of inflation are to remain as consistent or else the output price to return inflation towards its target is much prolonged in nature. Accepting high variance substantially within output might only bring smaller price fluctuation reduction (Wood, 2016). Henceforth, achieving such a minimum might not be optimal when policy makers further give certain consideration to stabilize their outputs. This further recommends for a modesty degree being warranted within claims on what policy of monetary can do over the periods of short term.
An essential implication of the discussion is that action for monetary policy needs to be timely for reducing the pressure of demand which in turn should decrease the output and inflation variability wherein there is no essential trading-off between them. On the other hand, a delayed response leads towards increased output variability and more significantly any gains initially are more offset through resulting economic slowed growth (Kashyap et al., 2012). In this situation, output stability and price need to be seen as complementary rather than being substitutes.
The experience of New Zealand in targeting inflation has resulted in producing a strong growth period and lower inflation. The RBNZ monetary policy as well has been effective especially with regard to containing inflation in a strong growth period. There are however several scopes for improvement. These improvements need to be brought in from the perspective of timely responses.
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